Techinical question. Anyone know where the IEA gets these numbers from for OPEC production? In Venezuela's case they sure don't match what Venezuela is reporting. They clearly state they back out Venezuela's synthetic crude production but do they also back out oil that is consumed domestically and not exported? If so then their numbers jive with the Venezuelan governments numbers. But if not there is a discrepancy in the IEA numbers.

As long as there is money to be made buying and selling futures, they will not iron out the reporting mechanisms.

All these 'corrections' and such are not an accident, any more than the collapse of Enron was a bookkeeping error.

The link at the bottom of the IEA page goes to the prior month's report.

Listening to BBC News Talking Point, in response to a caller question (Have we peaked? When might we peak?), Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin, OPEC's director of research, said that Peak Oil predictions were inaccurate because they ignored revisions for the current reserves ("you improve your understanding of the current fields") which could extend the peak 30-40 years or, with tar sands, further maybe until the end of the century.

I have been watching the whole peak oil question since 2003 after I read the then current book by Heinburg. One issue I have not seen addressed much anywhere is the trend in crude oil make up. We always see the gross numbers but I have yet to see the numbers for the specific mixes of crude. There are the benchmark numbers, ie WTI, Brent Crude etc., but what percentage of total production do the light crudes represent and how are they trending, verses the heavy crudes and the heavy sour crudes.

For instance, the weekly report on crude and product stocks, except for gas, in gross numbers did not look that bad this week, yet WTI futures prices do not seem to care. Is this because the light sweet crudes are already in decline and have been for some time? Are they making up a smaller portion of the total production mix?

Whew !! I for one am so relieved.

The "experts" are reassuring the masses that everything is fine here on Island Earth:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/10/news/economy/oil_gas/index.htm

The rest of the CNN "special" broken news report can be found at:
http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/gasprices/

So everything is OK now, right?

Human population is not growing at exponential rate, right?
Oil is not a finite, nonrenewable resource, right?
Technology will save us, right?
It is OK to keep building new factories to build more cars that will spew more CO2 into the atmosphere because Global Warming is not "real", right?

Thank goodness.

I thought I was having a bad dream there.

Davo,

I tried to track down that info on the DOE EIA site. I am sure it is there somewhere and will try again. I also would like to know this. The file (link) below is not exactly what you are looking for, but it is similar. It is an Excel listing of all global crude classes, but by price, not volume. If the link doesn't work, search in Google for the file name PSW13.xls.

I will try to find volume and post on an open link this weekend. At least the file above does show that DOE has data on all the crude classes available on the site.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/

Re: Non-OPEC

From page 14, Supply Summary

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2006 is expected to recover from two disruption-prone years in 2004 and 2005. Production in 2006 should average 52.4 mb/d versus 51.0 mb/d in 2005. Growth of 0.9 mb/d this year accelerates to 1.4 mb/d in 2006. Key assumptions underpinning the forecast for 2006 are a less disruption-prone performance from the mature OECD producing areas plus ongoing strong growth from the FSU, Latin America and Africa. The forecast coincides with emerging evidence that high prices may be leading to higher upstream activity levels.

And this

Sluggish growth so far this year in non-OPEC production results from a slow-down in the FSU and the onset of seasonal maintenance in the North Sea and North America. Production in Kazakhstan has been revised down by 55 kb/d for 2005. But there are now higher expectations for 2005 output for the US, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia and Vietnam. Second quarter growth accelerated to 470 kb/d, having slowed in the previous two quarters. Further acceleration is expected henceforward in 2005, with ongoing recovery in the Gulf of Mexico and Russia and with new supply from Azerbaijan, China, Sudan, Angola and Trinidad. Total supply in 2005 averages 51.0 mb/d versus 50.1 mb/d for 2004.

1) FSU production is expected to go up because of Sakhalin-1 Production, right? Going to kick in 3rd quarter 2005. But reserves there are a puny 2.3 billion barrels.

2) higher expectations for 2005 output for the Mexico -- I thought HO mentioned that Mexico has already tipped over into depletion

3) Growth of 0.9 mb/d this year accelerates to 1.4 mb/d in 2006.... less disruption-prone performance from the mature OECD producing areas -- huh??? No hurricanes next year, right? Geopolitical stability here we come!

4) Trinidad -- Finally, this major producer is coming online! We're saved. The U.S. government claims the island's proven oil reserves stand at around 700 million bbl. 8)

5) Sudan -- see 4). EIA reports "Sudan contains proven reserves of 563 million barrels of oil".

Jack;

I had a look at the site you suggested. The list of crudes from around the world that I saw, with prices, suggest that overwhelming demand is for the light and medium crudes. I'm wondering if all the heavy crudes are listed? In Table 13, World Crude Oil Prices, that list doesn't seem complete. What think you?

What would be most interesting is a list like table 13 showing volumes.