News Round-up and Linkfest

Oil to Head for $80/bbl this autumn:
Trading positions suggest a strong probability that oil will hit $80 a barrel this autumn, an amazing record high for black gold. But wiser leaders in the GCC are concerned that such high energy prices will throw the consumer nations into recession, if they are not already there.
Chevron-Texaco admits to peak oil and even creates a website. Their slogans are:
"It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We ll use the next trillion in 30."

"One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over."
Go have a read and participate.

OilCast #15:
* New statements from Don Coxe says Saudi & Mexican fields peaked
* Petro Caribe comes into force - details
* Russia moves to limit investment
* BP report 2Q 05 non-Russian production flat
* Prices await inventory draw or build
* Cindy outs major offshore terminal

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Wow. That Chevron website is pretty amazing. I mean, the content isn't all that right now, but the fact that it's sponsored by Chevron is, well, startling. Are they pulling a "Beyond Petroleum" here? Are they finally so sure that the oil supply is in trouble that they want to position themselves to look like forward-thinkers to avoid the inevitable backlash?

Ironic that the slogan PG refers to is actually a CERA quote (see the 2nd page).

I don't think this is a 3rd party campaign sponsored by Chevron, THIS is Chrevron!
And yes, they're pulling a "Beyond Petroleum" here (new Chrevon's motto: Human Energy), but reading through it (don't miss the manifesto), they are definitively closer to ASPO than to BP's PR stunts.

The manifesto is good for mailing it to PO skeptics... precisely because they describe it, without mentioning it!:

Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century. One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over. What we all do next will determine how well we meet the energy needs of the entire world in this century and beyond.

Demand is soaring like never before. As populations grow and economies take off, millions in the developing world are enjoying the benefits of a lifestyle
that requires increasing amounts of energy. In fact, some say that in 20 years the world will consume 40% more oil than it does today. At the same time,
many of the worldÂ’s oil and gas fields are maturing. And new energy discoveries are mainly occurring in places where resources are difficult to extract,
physically, economically and even politically. When growing demand meets tighter supplies, the result is more competition for the same resources.

We can wait until a crisis forces us to do something. Or we can commit to working together, and start by asking the tough questions: How do we meet the energy needs of the developing world and those of industrialized nations? What role will renewables and alternative energies play? What is the best way to protect our environment? How do we accelerate our conservation efforts? Whatever actions we take, we must look not just to next year, but to the next 50 years.

At Chevron, we believe that innovation, collaboration and conservation are the cornerstones on which to build this new world. We cannot do this alone.
Corporations, governments and every citizen of this planet must be part of the solution as surely as they are part of the problem. We call upon scientists
and educators, politicians and policy-makers, environmentalists, leaders of industry and each one of you to be part of reshaping the next era of energy.

How weird... capitalists asking for conservation!

Strange times indeed...

As far as the oil trading, Econbrowser has a good post this morning analyzing oil futures options and he comes up with an interesting chart showing the market's opinion of the probabilities for different oil prices next year, . "The market is putting something like a 7% chance that oil will go above Simmons's $100, and a 15% chance it could go below Ayer's $40." He also disputes the interpretation about the likelihood of $80 by this fall, pointing out that as many people are selling against that possibility as are buying into it.

Watching the oil mkt as Dennis approachs will provide some clues. If nature sends more hurricanes somewhat west of the same vicinity as it did last year producing more damage, potentially to refineries in Cancer Alley, it's very possible we'll see those oft mentioned spikes in price.

I find all the sudden veracity coming from BigOil about impending onset of PO of more than passing interest. It makes me wonder how much longer Bu will wait before facing the music and have its own "Carter moment." If they had any smarts, they'd coordinate a true oil use and emission reduction campaign since almost 100% of the public want some action taken on Climate Change, But I imagine they're hostages to their narrow constituency who want their profit machines to keep running as long as possible. Time and the weather will tell.

Bush will never have a Carter Moment. (Nice term, karlof1.) He had his neocon moment, instead, when he, Cheney, and the other PNAC cabal decided to invade Iraq and establish a huge military presence in the form of 14 permanent military bases in that country. That would put a huge amount of firepower not just close to the Middle East and persian Gulf, but also conveneiently close to the Caspian Sea basin.

I can't recommend Michael Klare's book Resource Wars highly enough. Read it, look at a map, and look at what happened in the last few years, and it all makes perfect sense.

What is Chevron saying?
With all their resources,
With all their scientists,
With all the years of warning since M.K. Hubbert in 1956,

Suddenly, now...., they have not a clue?
And the "solution" is to come from YOU? (aka average citizen)

From the "Oil and Gas" section of the Chevron sponsored website:

Fossil fuels also exist in unconventional forms—hydrocarbons contained in oil-sands, and even shale are believed to have more energy content than all the oil in Saudi Arabia. The catch is that it may currently take more energy and may cost more to extract and produce oil from some of these unconventional forms than would be gained.

Chevron is a heavy investor in Alberta's tar sands. Costs of extracting oil from these sources have far exceeded expectations. Hence the text. And the CERA projections count on a large infusion from non-OPEC, non-conventional sources in the future.... Not. As far as oil shales are concerned, I can sell you a round trip to Mars, good in 2035, so please contact me, invest now and beat the rush!

That would put a huge amount of firepower not just close to the Middle East and persian Gulf, but also conveneiently close to the Caspian Sea basin.

Firepower to do what?
Blow up oil fields if the locals don't sell us their oil?
Make Muslims like us?
Intimidate people who are already killing 70-80 Americans a month in Iraq?
[puts forefinger to lower lip and goes bubububububububub]

Nukular Strategerist,

Firepower to put puppet governments/friendly dictators in power. Ever noticed how the US deals with any dictator as long as its ready to sell natural resources? More of the same to come.. and "Beyond Petroleum" are just PR stunts so that Big Oil can innoculate themselves from criticism when things get bad. We all know how much influence they have on Bush and company. If you want to know what Big Oil really thinks, look at the actions of the administration, and not focus group-tested PR campaigns.

Super G: Excellent insight !!

Why, of course. This is a framing shift by Big Oil.

Now it makes sense.

Exxon Mobil is pumping the "Human Ingenuity" line.

Chevron is suddenly inviting all the dregs of humanity to their think tank party.

Wow. I feel so smart. I just got a "Will You Join Us" invitation card from the big thinkers at Chevron. They want my input. They think I'm smart. Vanity confirms their analysis. Suddenly I'm the one who has all the answers. Oh thank you Dorothy and Toto and Good Witch of the East. I'm no longer scared and crowing. Now I have these diploma papers. Will You Join Us.

This confirms what I had been thinking 90% of the time. Now "they" agree. I am smart. Smart means all-knowing. Ergo I knew about Peak Oil all along. Ergo it is my fault I did not come up with an answer earlier. Therefore, by deductive and inductive reasoning of my straw-filled brain, Big Oil is free of blame and it's all my responsibility. I have been graciously swept into the exclusive club, the Deep Oil Think Party. Just me. Wow. Will "YOU" Join "US". I am so honored.

Most appreciatively yours,
The Steppin Back Scarcrow.